Dec 01, 2020
The conclusions of research reports from international research institutions such as the International Energy Agency, the International Renewable Energy Agency, the American Wind/Solar Industry Association, and the European Commission all pointed out: The energy and power structure of the future world will be a high proportion of renewable energy, or even a 100% renewable energy structure.
Among the high-proportion renewable energy structure, photovoltaics account for the highest proportion, and it is generally believed that photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 50% of the global total installed capacity.
Since the implementation of China's "Renewable Energy Law" in 2006, the development of my country's photovoltaic industry has achieved world-renowned achievements. Photovoltaics will also become the world's most important source of electricity.
As far as China is concerned, under the pressure of energy supply and greenhouse gas emission reduction, energy transformation is imperative. How to promote China's energy and power transformation is the ultimate problem to be solved by China's power reform.
In 2020, China's non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption and 20% in 2030; by 2030, China will peak its carbon dioxide emissions around 2030 and strive to achieve it as soon as possible.
In accordance with the requirements of the national energy transition, the National Renewable Energy Center issued a research report "China Renewable Energy Outlook 2018" in 2018, which proposed:
By 2050, China's renewable energy will account for more than 60% of primary energy consumption and 90% of electricity consumption; the proportion of electricity in primary energy consumption will increase from less than 30% to more than 60%.
The conservative goals proposed in the report are:
The installed photovoltaic capacity needs to rise from the current 9.2% to 38.3% in 2050, and the power generation capacity rises from the current 2.5% to 19.3%. The installed photovoltaic capacity will exceed 2 billion kilowatts by 2050, that is, the average annual photovoltaic installed capacity of 2021-2050 is 60 million kilowatts.
In 2021, photovoltaic power generation can achieve less than 0.25 yuan/kWh in the first-class resource areas in western China and less than 0.35 yuan/kWh in the third-class resource areas in the east. Compared with conventional thermal power, it has a strong competitive advantage;
In the next 10 years, the cost of photovoltaics in the first-type resource area will be reduced to 0.1 yuan/kWh, and the third-type resource area will be reduced to 0.2 yuan/kWh. After 2030, photovoltaics will become the cheapest electricity in the world.