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New Forecast of Global Photovoltaic Market Under the Dual Influence of Epidemic Situation and De-Subsidy Trend

Mar 24, 2020

With the continuous fermentation of the global epidemic, South Korea, Spain, Germany, Japan, the United States, India, Vietnam, Australia, the Netherlands, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan have been affected by the epidemic to varying degrees in the GW-level market of the overseas photovoltaic market. Our company sells PV Roof Systems.

"At present, we have adjusted our global GDP growth forecast for 2020 from 2.5 to 1.7. The electricity market will also decline due to the slowdown in economic growth, including traditional and emerging energy markets. "On March 17, at the 2020 PV Overseas Market Experience Sharing Conference, Hu Dan, senior analyst at IHS Markit, brought everyone a forecast and analysis of the global photovoltaic market in 2020.

Up to now, the local epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, and the manufacturing and manufacturing industries are in a stable recovery operation. With the continuous spread of the global epidemic and the continuous escalation of epidemic prevention and control measures in overseas regions, the impact of the overseas photovoltaic market in the first half of the year cannot be underestimated.

According to public information, the new installed capacity of global photovoltaics in 2019 is about 115-120GW, of which the installed capacity of new photovoltaics in overseas markets is about 85-90GW, accounting for about 75% of the world.

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Regarding the pre-judgment of new global installations in 2020, Hu Dan said: "We expect the global new installations in 2020 to be 120-140GW, and the overall quarterly installed market affected by the epidemic may be postponed in the future. As long as the project is not canceled, there may be a lag in annual installations. On the other hand, it will also increase the installed capacity in 2021. "

At present, IHS Markit's ranking of the top 10 global photovoltaic markets in 2020 will remain unchanged, in order of China, the United States, India, Japan, Australia, Spain, Vietnam, Germany, and so on.

Regarding the distribution of installed capacity in these key markets, Hu Dan said: "2020 is the last year of China's photovoltaic subsidies, and this year's new installed capacity will reflect the following aspects: unfinished bidding subsidies and parity projects in 2019, special features to be approved For high-voltage projects, the total subsidy budget for the domestic market and bidding projects in 2020 is 1.5 billion. These total about 50GW. IHS Markit conservatively estimates that China's new additions in 2020 will remain around 40GW.

For the U.S. market, as the U.S. investment tax credit is about to expire at the end of 2019, this makes us have high expectations for the 2020 US PV installation market, which is estimated to be above 16GW. India is expected to add more than 10GW, and projects may be delayed in the first quarter. Japan's new estimate is 7GW.

We originally predicted that about 24 GW of new installed capacity in the European market in 2020. This is relatively optimistic data. At present, it seems that the Spanish and Italian markets will be greatly affected. From the perspective of global photovoltaic installation demand, there is a lot of pressure to complete this year, especially in the European and American markets. "

The above information is provided by the photovoltaic system design company.